For this episode of Landowner Insider, I did something a little different: a solo breakdown of what’s actually happening in the Texas land market in 2026. Our team is on appointments every single day across the state, and I wanted to pull together the real data, not just the feel of the market, so landowners, buyers, and sellers can make decisions based on numbers instead of headlines.
I pulled data from the Texas A&M Real Estate Center, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, the Realtors Land Institute, Texas Farm Bureau, USDA’s National Agriculture Statistics Service, the Land Report, the Republic Report, Independence Title, Capital Farm Credit, and our own transaction data here at Mock Ranches, along with insight from AgTexas and AgTrust Farm Credit. Here’s what it shows.
The Short Version: Texas Land Values Aren’t Crashing, But Fewer Properties Are Selling
Texas land prices remain near record highs and are up year over year. But transaction volume has slowed, and total dollar volume statewide is down. That’s not a contradiction, it’s a market getting more selective. Well-positioned, high-quality ranches are still generating strong interest and multiple offers. Average or overpriced properties are sitting longer and, in many cases, need a price adjustment before they move. The market isn’t forcing sellers to sell, and it isn’t creating urgency for buyers to buy, so we’re seeing a standoff rather than a crash.
What’s Actually Driving Buyer and Seller Decisions Right Now
Interest Rates
Rates get blamed for a lot, but they’re actually close to the 30-year average right now. What’s really happening is a five-year memory problem: buyers remember 2 and 3 percent COVID-era rates like they were yesterday, so today’s rates feel high by comparison even though they’re historically normal. The real impact is on monthly carrying cost. For every point rates climb, the monthly payment on a leveraged purchase goes up roughly 10 percent, which has pushed a lot of first-time and debt-dependent buyers out of the market. Cash buyers, meanwhile, are comparing land against distressed commercial and residential real estate that’s producing actual monthly cash flow, something raw land typically doesn’t offer, which pulls some of that capital away from land purchases.
The Shift Toward Quality
Buyers still want Texas land, but they’re no longer willing to pay peak prices for average properties. The “one of one” ranches, the ones with strong water, current improvements, real productivity, wildlife, views, and good access, are still commanding multiple offers. The more common properties, the ones that look like a hundred others on the market, are seeing longer time on market and offers well below list price. In Erath, Hood, and Parker counties, the average sale price is running about 84 percent of list price, compared to 95 percent in stronger markets. If a well-marketed property isn’t showing, the issue is almost always price, not photography or exposure.
Cattle and Farm Economics
Strong cattle prices help established operators who want to expand and help legacy ranch families catch up on improvements and equipment, but they’re not creating new land buyers. As I discussed with cattleman Wesley Wood a few episodes back, and as Brandon Stephens laid out in his breakdown of small-acreage ranch economics, even at today’s cattle prices, a cow-calf operation might cover three to four months of a property’s annual carrying cost, not the note itself. Row crop farmers are facing more pressure: commodity prices for corn, cotton, soybeans, sorghum, and wheat are down while fuel and fertilizer costs have roughly doubled, which is putting downward pressure on Panhandle farm ground specifically.
Water
Buyers are increasingly underwriting strong groundwater as a core part of a property’s value. Places dependent on a water meter with no groundwater backup are simply weaker assets in this market. Surface water adds real value for recreation, cattle, and wildlife, but groundwater is what gives a property security through a drought like the one much of the state is in right now.
Population Growth and Fragmentation
Texas will keep seeing land near metro areas subdivided and fragmented as the state grows. It’s rare that we sell the same ranch configuration twice, a 500-acre property often comes back to market five or ten years later split into 250-acre or even 10-acre tracts. That fragmentation trend isn’t slowing down.
Drought
Much of Texas has been in a serious drought for six to seven months, mirroring last year’s pattern of good rain through early summer followed by a dry back half. Dry, brown pastures and low ponds are hard to market and hard to photograph, which is why we’re advising some sellers to wait for spring green-up. As I told several sellers this month: a good two-inch rain can be worth a million dollars to how a property shows.
Texas Land Market by the Numbers: Statewide Q2 2026
- Average price per acre statewide: $5,218, up 3.27% year over year
- Typical tract size: down 22% year over year
- Number of sales: up 4.3% year over year
- Total acres sold: down 12.5% year over year
- Total dollar volume: down almost 10% year over year
- Five-year annualized price growth: 8.17%
The headline isn’t that Texas land is falling in value. It’s a volume story: fewer acres and fewer total dollars changing hands, even as price per acre and transaction count both tick up. Dissect those numbers further and the pattern holds: strong, well-located ranches are up 6 to 8 percent, while average properties are down slightly, offsetting the gains.
Texas Land Prices by Region: Where the Market Is Strong and Where It’s Soft
Panhandle, South Plains, and North Texas: Softest Market in the State
Price per acre down 7.5%, typical tract size up 4%, number of sales down 10%, acres sold down 19%, and total dollar volume down 25.3% year over year. Severe drought, strained aquifers, row crop headwinds, and wildfires have all weighed on this region.
Far West Texas (Trans-Pecos and Big Bend Region)
Price per acre is up, though typical tract size is down close to 25% as fewer of the very large ranch sales that usually anchor this market’s numbers have closed. Total dollar volume is down about 4.8%.
Northeast Texas (Tyler, Palestine, Athens)
Price per acre is flat to down, typical tract size down about 2%, but number of sales is actually up about 9%. Total acres sold are down about 5%, and total dollar volume is down about 10%.
Gulf Coast and Brazos River Bottom (Victoria to Houston)
A mostly positive, fairly flat market. Typical tract size is up about 1.7%, number of sales is roughly flat, and total acres sold and total dollar volume have each softened modestly, down roughly 6% and 3.5% respectively.
South Texas: One of the Strongest Markets in the State
Price per acre up about 1%, number of acres sold up about 5%, total number of sales up a striking 26%, total acres sold up about 7%, and total dollar volume up almost 8%. Two factors are driving this: closed borders after years of stagnation from illegal crossing traffic, and a wet summer that filled ponds and lakes across a region that had been in a multi-year drought.
Austin-Waco Hill Country: Strong and Fragmenting
Price per acre up about 8%, typical tract size down about 4.5% as properties continue to fragment into smaller pieces, number of sales up 2.6%, total acres sold up almost 3%, and total dollar volume up 11.81%. The one soft spot in this region is the over-improved luxury ranch, a large house on a small acreage, where high carrying costs and depreciating improvements are creating resistance.
How This Compares to What We’re Seeing at Mock Ranches
Our own numbers tell a similar story of volatility layered on top of an overall strong year. January was down 20% year over year, but February rebounded 30% and March was up 120%, making Q1 one of our strongest quarters in six years. April dipped 10%, then May jumped 110% and June was up 50%, another strong quarter. July was up 40% year over year, and August came in flat. We’ve seen some slowing here in Q3, but the year is shaping up to be a strong one overall.
What Sellers Should Understand Before Listing a Ranch
The best time to sell is when you need to sell. Family circumstances, debt, death, divorce, and estate settlements remain the primary drivers for sellers today, more so than the discretionary trade-up market, which is notably softer. If you have real urgency to sell, price at or slightly below current market value rather than anchoring to 2022 pricing. In a declining or flat market, every day on market without a sale means the property is further from where it needs to be priced. Pricing correctly the first time, not chasing the market down over months, is what actually produces the best outcome. It’s also why we started Texas Land and Wildlife, our staging and land-improvement company: properties that need brush clearing, road work, or fencing before they hit the market are not performing as well as move-in-ready properties, and a relatively small investment upfront can make a meaningful difference in final sale price.
What Buyers Should Know Before Making Their Next Move
Buyers have more leverage today than they’ve had in years. Unlike the 2021 post-COVID market, when buyers had to take what was available, today’s buyers can afford to be patient and disciplined, watching how a property performs on market before engaging. That patience is rational, not a sign the market is weak. It just means the properties worth paying a premium for are the well-positioned, well-maintained ones, and everything else has room to negotiate.
Watch the Full Episode
This article is based on my solo market breakdown on Landowner Insider.
Work With Mock Ranches
Whether you’re trying to time a sale, understand what your ranch is really worth in today’s market, or find the right property while buyers still have leverage, our team can walk you through the numbers for your specific region. Explore current Texas land for sale or reach out for a free market analysis at mockranches.com.
